Week 2 projections revisited

Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books, and with it, another round of my projections have been put to the test. Slightly worse performance this week than last (11-5 this week, 24-8 overall), but on the whole, things have looked largely as I expected them to. Without further ado, here's what I've learned:

Lessons learned from the games I missed:

Bengals at Packers: The Packers' defense couldn't manage to get off the field on third downs at all, getting stops, it seemed, only on the two possessions which ended in Carson Palmer interceptions. When they had the ball, a plethora of drops, a fumble by Ryan Grant to kill a drive that was shaping up to be an easy march for points, and the complete disappearance of Greg Jennings could have turned this game into a Bengals romp, but true to form, they bungled their way into a tight situation, surviving only as a result of a false start which killed the game's final seconds. Despite laying an egg, The Packers' defense still looks, to me, like a very good unit, and I expect them to look like the one which manhandled the Bears more frequently than the one Carson Palmer picked apart.

Baltimore at San Diego: To begin with, Shawne Merriman just isn't himself yet. I don't buy the notion that Tom Brady's struggles are ACL-related, but Merriman just doesn't seem to have any burst, and once he's blocked, he might as well be in a protective bubble until the play ends, because he isn't gonna be shedding it any time soon. Meanwhile, it doesn't look like the Ravens' defense is gonna be able to limit teams' scoring the way they're accustomed to, but they've still got playmakers and when the rubber meets the road, they're probably still gonna make plays. I doubt they'll keep scoring 30 points a game, or anywhere close to it, when they see a defense capable of generating some pressure without blitzing.

Giants at Dallas: I really didn't learn anything at all, except that I was too kind to the Cowboys in making my projections. I said then, and believe now, that the Cowboys are a pretty distant third, in my mind, to the Giants and Eagles, and that the biggest reasons for that was that their defense didn't impress me even a little bit and Tony Romo would find ways to lose whatever tight games they found themselves in. Lo and behold, in front of the "biggest crowd in NFL history" (about 20% of whom watched the game on video screens in the concourses) Tony Romo completed less than 50% of his passes, threw three interceptions, and amazingly, only lost because his defense couldn't stop Eli Manning marching the ball straight down the field to set up a game winning field goal, despite knowing exactly what was coming. When you allow a pair of guys starting their second NFL games at wide receiver on the road in the grand opening of the most opulent stadium the NFL has ever seen to catch 10 balls each, you fucking suck at defense. There's just no other way to see it.

And the teams I've missed on twice:

Patriots at Jets: Clearly, I was wrong about the Patriots not losing a game. But as I said then, I expected to be wrong about that. What I didn't expect to be wrong about was that the Patriots should have won that game. To put it simply, I slept on the Jets' defense. Rex Ryan's scheme is so different from what their holdovers have played in, and he was bringing in so many new parts, I just didn't think it would catch on right away. There's a lot of chatter right now about Tom Brady's knee, and perhaps it's valid, but I don't think it's fair to put the blame on Brady for his inability to bring his team back late on Sunday. The Jets' defense made it clear all week they intended to harass Brady by any means necessary, even if it meant letting receivers run down the sidelines totally uncovered. They succeeded in ruining their timing, if not at actually sacking Brady, and the Patriots didn't have an answer. I still think it's going to be the very rare week that holding the opponent to 16 points isn't good enough defensively to set up an easy Patriots win.

Saints at Eagles: I've missed on both of the Eagles' first two games, but my opinion hasn't changed even a little bit. Despite being urged to blame it, I thought the Eagles' defense played admirably given the competition. They got more turnovers/stops than I expect most teams to get against the Saints, despite being on the field most of the day thanks to an offense which didn't sustain drives and joined the special teams in committing a bevy of penalties and turnovers. It was, in short, an ugly game for the Eagles, but I don't think a very meaningful one at this point. If McNabb is healthy coming out of the bye week, even if they manage to lose against Kansas City this weekend, the Eagles will be fine. If we're looking at a Kevin Kolb offense for the rest of the season, say hello to mediocrity.