NFC South projections: The tightest division in football

Falcons: 10-6 (4-2) There's almost nothing separating the three good teams in this division in my mind. The Falcons, in fact, top this projection only by projected tiebreaker. The addition of Tony Gonzalez to their offense should help Matt Ryan a lot, not that he seemed to be having much trouble last year. The Falcons also seem to be becoming the new Broncos, with a never-ending stream of potential gamebreaking backs headlined by Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Their defense is still suspect, but it's also head coach Mike Smith's side of the ball, so it's not unreasonable to think they could improve based on nothing but continuity.

Saints: 10-6 (3-3) While the Falcons perennially boast the scariest running attack in football, their rivals in New Orleans seem to have a similar lock on being the most prolific passing game. You can thank Sean Payton, the only coach who might ever dethrone Andy Reid as the most pass-happy in NFL history, for that, but you can also thank the NFL's most accurate passer, Drew Brees for executing his scheme to perfection. Also like the Falcons, it's hard to see them holding too many teams under 21 points, having done essentially nothing to improve a defense that's been very easy to score on in recent years.

Panthers: 9-7 (4-2) Steve Smith and the backfield combination of DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart should keep this team in games, but to win in either Atlanta or New Orleans and have a chance to win the division, this team is going to need one of two things to happen: either Jake Delhomme is going to have to match Brees and Ryan throw for throw and win shootouts, or the Panthers' defense under Ron Meeks' newly installed Tampa 2 scheme is going to have to shut them down. We've all seen what happens to Jake Delhomme when the game is on his shoulders...best of luck bending but not breaking against the Saints and Falcons.

Buccaneers: 2-14 (1-5) The very fact that Tampa has been even remotely close to contention in the past several seasons was a testament to how good a job Jon Gruden and Monte Kiffin were doing. I like Derrick Ward as a complementary back but as far as I can tell he's literally the only thing that offense has going other than Antonio Bryant. As long as it took Antonio Bryant to have one legitimately good, non-controversial year, is it really wise to expect a second from him in a row? But hey, at least they deserve the shit that's about to start raining on their heads for the way they scapegoated Gruden, right?