As T.O. might say: get your brooms ready.

I'm having trouble keeping my thoughts together, as the last few minutes refuse to pass between now and the 2:37 first pitch, but basically, it goes like this: the Phils are just better. Their lineup is better, especially when factoring in the likelihood of the Rockies facing four lefthanded starters in a five game series. Their starting pitching is better, especially when you factor in the Phils' career ownership of the Rockies' first three starters: Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel, and in limited action, Ubaldo Jimenez.

Here's where I take a leap: Brad Lidge seemed to really take something of value out of getting the last out in the clincher. He looked like his 2008 self taking the mound, albeit in meaningless games, over the weekend. I'm probably kidding myself, but I just have a feeling he's gonna be fine. I truly believe that if they can get past Jimenez today -- which might well require Lidge getting a save because I think all of us who watch the team know Charlie is giving him the first shot -- the next two games shouldn't be close. Cole is a proven October beast, as are Pedro and Blanton, who I think are the realistic possibilities for game 3. The Phillies have seen a lot of Aaron Cook and Jason Hammel and have flat out owned them. They'll do it again. Phils sweep.

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Week 4 revisited

First and foremost, stay tuned after the introverted portion of this post for my weekly power rankings, to be included in this post from here on out in hopes of avoiding the absent-mindedness that kept me from posting any after week 3.

Last week, I speculated that my days as a better than .500 predictor of NFL games may soon be coming to an end if rather prominent trends (i.e. my percentage of correct picks decreasing on a weekly basis) didn't reverse themselves. Following a 9-5 week, bringing my record to 43-19 on the season, I'm officially on mediocrity watch. Let's take a look at what went wrong:

Lessons Learned from the Games I Missed

Cincinnati at Cleveland: While doing my projections, I couldn't see the difference between the two teams from Ohio. By the time they played this game, it was rather obvious. I don't think the Bengals are anywhere near as good as their 3-1 record, but they're playing much better defense than they have in years and, at least momentarily, they're getting enough out of Cedric Benson to keep defenses "honest," opening up opportunities for Carson Palmer in the passing game. Couple a Bengals team which looks like it's solidly mediocre with a Browns team that is somehow even worse than I thought they were, and falling further into disarray every week, and it wasn't hard to see this missed pick coming at all.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: As far as I was able to tell entering the season, I was actually less impressed with the Titans than almost anyone. I mean, I only had them at 8-8. But not even I had any idea how big the step backwards their defense was taking would be. It's one thing to give up 31 points to the Texans, who are a stacked at the skill positions better than perhaps any team in the NFL, but to allow the Jags and Jets to put up 60+ points in the two games which followed is simply pathetic. Kerry Collins and the Tennessee offense is actually performing better than most of us expected them to be, but with a defense that's giving San Diego, Cleveland, and Tampa a run for the worst in football, it doesn't matter in the slightest. The way this team is playing, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they're the ones in control of which team gets to trade into the #1 slot in the draft to take Sam Bradford.

San Francisco at St. Louis: This was a very similar situation to the Ohio bowl I outlined above. I didn't give either of these teams much credit, at all, entering the season, though I did think San Francisco was the better of the two. But as a general rule, when picking between two teams I would describe as "awful," I pick the one playing at home. Honestly, I don't even think SF is much better than I thought they were. Slightly better defense than anticipated, but a passing game which still isn't good enough to win from behind. However, given the problems Arizona has right now, I'd be pretty surprised if the 49ers don't win the NFC West, officially cementing their position as the tallest midgets. Who else thinks any division with an overall sub-.500 record should lead to automatic realignment? What fun are the playoffs when only 10 of the 12 teams which make it have any right to be there?

Dallas at Denver: You would think that I must've learned something positive about the Broncos, who have now won more games than I thought they would all year, now that they're sitting at 4-0. You would be wrong. This game taught me, as I had already suspected, that Dallas is going to have to overachieve to get to mediocrity. The Cowboys are, without a doubt, a bad football team. Their defense is absolutely pathetic against the pass, as is their passing game. They're not terrible at running the ball or stopping others from doing so, which is the only thing keeping them in games, but as comfortable as opposing quarterbacks look in the pocket and as awful as the Cowboys' secondary is at tackling, it literally doesn't matter. So what is supposed to impress me about the Broncos managing all of 17 points against them? Denver isn't anywhere near as bad as I thought they were, I'll grant that, but I can't really get excited about their defense allowing 26 points through four games when the first three of them came against the Bengals, Browns, and Raiders. It'll be fun to see how many times over the season's final 12 games the Broncos allow more points in one week than they did in the first four.

Green Bay at Minnesota: The Vikings are better, and the Packers worse, than I expected. Actually, to be specific, the Packers are worse than I expected and the Vikings are better than I had hoped. Green Bay's defense, which was supposed to be an aggressive, zone blitzing 3-4 unit in the mold of the Steelers and Patriots, hasn't been generating even a little bit of pressure. In fact, they have managed to turn their best pass rusher, Aaron Kampman, into perhaps the worst pass covering linebacker in football. It's like watching Chris Gocong if he had played as a rookie. Compounding matters, the Pack hasn't coped at all with the loss of starting left tackle Chad Clifton, robbing Aaron Rodgers and his stellar group of receivers of anything resembling the time necessary to get the ball down the field. The good news for the Packers, and for those of us who thought they'd be an elite team, is that these should be correctable issues. Meanwhile, the Vikings have looked like everything I, a proud Favre-hater, was praying they wouldn't be. They still have some trouble with quarterbacks who have time, but with the best defensive line in football with the best pass rusher at the end of it, not too many have. It still makes me wanna puke, though.

Power Rankings

1. Giants - If Eli's play is significantly hampered in the long term by his injury, the G-Men won't stay atop the rankings for too long, but at the moment, they're the best team. New Orleans and the Colts are flashier and the Vikings will get more headlines as long as they have Favre, but it's as simple as this: of the four teams, the Giants and Vikings run the ball better, which will always give them a leg up against the pass-happy Saints and Colts. Perhaps more importantly, the Giants still have a stable full of pass rushers along the defensive line which continue to give opposing quarterbacks fits on third down. How do you beat a team which brings as much pressure rushing three or four as most teams do on an all-out blitz? Much as I hate to say it, I just don't think you do.

2. Saints - At first glance, it would appear the Saints' quick passing game is the answer to my last question. Teams which put pressure on Drew Bress, or at least the teams that try to, find themselves burned by quick passes and, inevitably, end up taking their chances in zone coverage. The problem I find myself running into when it comes to beating the Giants that way is that, generally, the Giants don't have to rush more than 4 to create the sort of pressure most teams blitzes do. Quick passing will back a heavy blitz off every time, but when the pressure is all coming from in front of a typical zone coverage, there won't be anywhere to go with the football. Luckily for New Orleans, there's exactly one team in the NFL capable of generating that kind of a pass rush entirely from along the defensive line.

3. Colts - What's to say? Peyton Manning is the best pure thrower of the football I've ever seen, and with every passing week, the people you hear repeating that sentiment come from a little further back in time. If they manage to play any kind of defense at all, or even go against a team with a slight deficiency at offensive tackle, they blow teams out. There just isn't a reliable way to beat them other than having the ball last in a shootout.

4. Vikings - It's going to take some nailbiters for this team to beat teams with either a well-balanced offense or a dominant passing game, a result of their inability to defend the pass by means other than pressuring the quarterback, but for the most part, it shouldn't matter. Favre's still got the laser rocket arm, Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the league, and their defense still makes it very hard to run the ball with any consistency. They have one of the few defensive fronts I've ever seen which looks like it can wear out an offensive line over the course of a game. But against an offense which makes them respect play action and/or finds a way to block Jared Allen, the Vikes should allow a pretty decent number of points. And of course, in my heart, I still believe and will always believe that by the time it's all said and done, Brett will do something stupid with the ball and it will cost them dearly, because he always does.

5. Patriots - Maybe I'm just scarred by the Super Bowl lo those many years ago, but I still find myself sold on the Pats. They won't dominate defensively, but with every game, the margin for error for their defense gets wider, as Brady and the offense inch ever closer to the dominance we all know they're capable of. In fact, if I had to put my money on it, I would say this is the week they officially put the NFL on notice, as well as expose the Broncos' fraudulent defense.

6. Eagles - Not that it comes as even a mild surprise, but it appears Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook will return, healthy as can be, to the field this Sunday against Tampa. As long as they're at full strength, the Birds will be in the mix at the end of the year. If not, at least we've seen that all hope won't be lost if they have to rely on Kevin Kolb or Shady McCoy to make the offense go. Shit, for the first time in the Andy Reid era, there's gonna be a smidgen of merit, if only a smidgen, when the peanut gallery inevitably calls for Donovan's benching the first time one of his receivers drops a ball on Sunday.

7. Steelers - See how much better things work out when you stop pretending to be something you're not? Put the ball in Ben's hand at the end of the game, you win. Try to salt the ball away being a power running team you haven't been in years, you not only open the door for the other team's offense, you all but guarantee a winded defense trying to stop them. I can't put too much stock in Rashard Mendenhall's big night, given the Chargers are literally the worst tackling defense I've ever seen, but it didn't hurt him one bit that San Diego was forced to play the pass first. As long as they keep passing to set up the run, as opposed to the other way around, they should be able to produce enough on the ground to make it worthwhile. If they insist on being a run first, run second team, they'll keep playing .500 football, with or without Troy Polamalu. They're just not built to be a smashmouth offensive team right now.

8. Ravens - That's a little more like the Ravens I expected this year. A defense which still looks like the defense of the past few years, but a little bit slower and a lot less ingenious without Rex Ryan scheming it, and a good, but not great, offense. Did anyone really believe in those 30+ point performances against Kansas City, Cleveland, and San Diego? Amazingly, the answer is a resounding yes.

9. Jets - Speaking of Sexy Rexy the genius, did anyone else notice how out of sync he managed to keep the Saints' offense last week? If not for Mark Sanchez' worst game thus far this season and a defense which had been on the field all game, the Jets would've kept the Saints' offense out of the end zone for the entire game. When Ryan blitzed, he managed to catch Brees off guard, and when he dropped into a zone, there simply weren't open areas for the Saints' receivers to sit in. But as long as Sanchez is on the learning curve, gang green is going to have to win tight games. If the offense doesn't do a better job of sustaining drives, expect more games where the Jets' defense finally breaks at the end.

10. Broncos - They're 4-0, so it seemed to me like it would be unfair not to inlude them in the top 10, but this isn't, realistically, one of the best teams in the NFL. There are few guarantees in life, and similarly in football, but one of them is that the Broncos will allow significantly more than 6.5 points per game for the last three quarters of the season. You can take that one to the bank. And as nice as it is that Kyle Orton hasn't turned the ball over yet, he also hasn't seen even a mediocre defense since week 1, when he needed a miracle in the game's final minute to find the end zone against the Bengals. And honestly, I'm not sure that's even better than a mediocre defense. But until they start losing like I think they inevitably will, they get a spot on the list.

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Week 3 revisited

A day late because all I've been able to think about the last two days is how much the Phils were starting to resemble the last two seasons' iterations of the Mets, it's time to revisit a fairly interesting week 3 of the NFL season. My preseason picks went 10-6, bringing the season's total to 34-14, though also continuing the decline in my results from week 1 to week 2. With the onset of bye week season next week, I'll have a significantly smaller sample size from week to week for a while, but if things keep moving the direction they are, I'll be under posting sub-.500 weeks before I know it. So, what have I learned?

Lessons Learned from the Games I Missed

Washington at Detroit: Well, for starters, I learned that even when losing to the most pathetic franchise in sports to snap the longest losing streak in the NFL in decades, one can get a perfectly respectable performance from Jason Campbell filling in for Donovan McNabb in fantasy. But more importantly, I also learned that the Redskins, after only three weeks, appear to be a team with absolutely no desire. They didn't lose to the Lions on talent, they lost because the Lions were fighting harder than them on every single snap of the game. Truth be told, they could easily have lost to one of the only teams I've seen thus far that looks worse than them, the Rams, last week, but their superior talent was enough to set up a few field goals. Amazingly, though, the 'Skins could very well be sitting at 3-3 before we all know it, with the pathetic Bucs and Chiefs scheduled for trips to the nation's capital over the next three weeks. But if they don't sweep those two games and win in Carolina in between, I think we can officially label them the Deadskins for the rest of 2009. Even at 3-3 they'll be too far behind the Giants, and likely the Eagles and Cowboys as well, to make any kind of push.

Tennessee at NY Jets: Believe it or not, this Jets win impressed me even more than beating the Patriots. To begin with, the Titans mostly kept the Jets off of Kerry Collins, which common logic would tell you is the way to beat the Jets. Add to that Mark Sanchez's first performance which looked like a rookie quarterback and you find yourself wondering how the Jets managed to win the game. Amazingly, on top of it all, the Jets couldn't run the ball even a little bit, with Leon Washington and Thomas Jones carrying the ball a combined 26 times for 66 yards. All that, and a Titans team desperate to avoid an 0-3 start couldn't hold off Sexy Rexy's Jetsies, though. They played another of the gritty, grind it out sort of game that belies the youth and transition which looked like they would define the Jets heading into the season. They face an altogether different test this week, trading in a rain-soaked defensive struggle for what will probably be either a shootout or a blowout under the dome in New Orleans. If they pass that test, it's gonna hard to convince anyone they aren't the best team in the AFC.

Jacksonville at Houston: The Texans' defense has made an absolute fool of me over the first three weeks of the season. In week 1, they gave up 24 points to the Jets, who have averaged 20 in their other two games. In week 2, the Titans, who have averaged 13.5 points in their other two losses, scored 31 in a loss to Houston. Most recently, Jacksonville put up 31 points on them, after averaging just 14.5 in their first two games. So, through three weeks, Houston opponents are outscoring their average output by an average of 12.67 points per game. I don't care if you see that as being two touchdowns or four field goals better against Houston than against everyone else, however you slice it, it's terrifyingly bad.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers won't be #1 in my top 10 this week. But until I heard the words "Willie Parker" and "turf toe" in the same breath earlier this morning, they weren't gonna drop out of the top 5, either. The thing that worries me most about the Steelers right now is Jeff Reed, who looks like he has fallen off the dreaded kickers' cliff, which we all know can very quickly become a very prolonged problem. Even in one of the sloppiest games I've seen the Steelers play under Mike Tomlin, a game which included a pair of airheaded penalties against normally reliable Hines Ward, and a drop on an easy touchdown catch by Limas Sweed, and the continued invisibility of Rashard Mendenhall, they were only a missed chip shot field goal away from overtime, and a touchdown inside the last 20 seconds away from winning the game in regulation. The truth is, Tomlin must have looked at the film by now and realized he beat himself abandoning a defense which was doing exactly what he wanted it to do for most of the final drive. The entire point of a strategy like they started off employing, keeping the play in front of them at all times, giving up small chunks of yards underneath, is that the closer you get to the end zone, the harder it becomes to find those spaces to fit the ball into. If Tomlin sticks with that strategy in the red zone, instead of suddenly opening up the field by sending a pair of blitzes which the Bengals easily picked up, there probably wouldn't be panic right now among Steelers fans. He's too smart to make that mistake again, especially at the end of a game in which he hasn't managed to find a pass rush the entire time.

Denver at Oakland: As I indicated going into the weekend, I had already changed my preseason opinion on this one after just two weeks. The Broncos, even without Mike Shanahan, appear able to plug running backs into the offense and make them better than they really are. Add to that a defense which really does appear to be taking on the mentality of their newly imported spiritual leader, future Hall of Fame safety and the greatest Eagle since Reggie White, Brian Dawkins. Of course, it's not that tough to look like an aggressive, intimidating defense when you play a couple of teams from Ohio and the Raiders, but for the moment, the Broncos appear to be a semi-legitimate threat. But at the end of the day, there's a reason the Bears were willing to ship out a fairly successful starting quarterback in Kyle Orton and a pair of first round picks to get Jay Cutler. Orton just isn't good enough to win them the games teams generally need their quarterback to win.

Indianapolis at Arizona: If the Colts' undersized linebackers and secondary can do as good of a job disrupting the Cardinals' offensive timing as they did, the defending Super Bowl losers are in deep, deep trouble. We've always known they had no running game, and that their defense wasn't anything to write home about, but Warner to Boldin/Fitzgerald was supposed to be a sure thing. The Colts' defense made them look like any other one dimensional offense. It can't be too long before all the defenses in the NFL superior to the Colts figure out how to do it. Click me for the rest!

Power rankings and picks for week 3

What's more fun than top 10 power rankings? Power rankings with picks for the week!

Power Rankings
1. Steelers - Yeah, they lost, but I put them first on the list last week expecting them to lose, and honestly, they should've won the game. Jeff Reed missed two pretty makeable field goals that would've at worst had the game tied had he made one of them, but I think the bigger culprit is the playcalling late in the game. I can't see them being so content to take the game out of Ben's hands with the hint of doubt Reed has now planted. The moment they start giving him a chance on short yardage third downs is the moment they start scoring touchdowns instead of kicking field goals. It's a moment I expect to come very soon.
2. Giants - As bad as I think the Dallas secondary is, I also saw the killer instinct in Eli that he showed in the Super Bowl, something I've never been convinced is there. I still think he'll get blown over the moment he sees a January wind in New Jersey, but for now, he's a quarterback I don't wanna see with the game on the line, winning shootouts with no name receivers and Brandon Jacobs getting shut down. Now excuse me while I go vomit.
3. Saints - There was a time about six years ago when I was the only person on earth who believed in Drew Brees. I think we can all agree at this point he's a shitload better than I ever even thought he would be. I don't know that they'll score 45+ points EVERY week, but I would be shocked if they don't average 30 points a game for the length of the season. They're easily the best offense in football. They'd be at the top save for the fact that Kevin Kolb and Matt Stafford have put up 49 points on them in two games, and neither of them had even started a game in the NFL before seeing them. Can you imagine what a real quarterback might do to them?
4. Jets - Color me officially sold on Sexy Rexy's Jetsies, as Keith Hernandez would surely call them. They're essentially the Ravens' defense at its best with a top notch running game and at least as good of a passing game as the Ravens had when they won the Super Bowl. There's still not a lot to like in terms of wide receivers other than Cotchery, but Dustin Keller is a more than capable tight end and Leon Washington is a home run threat in the passing game. As much as I'd like to see them use him more in the offense, it's probably better to keep him healthy until the games start to matter a little more, especially if they're winning with him as a secondary threat.
5. Patriots - I'm having trouble keeping the faith here, but I just really don't think things are as bad as people want them to look. Everyone has known for as long as the forward pass has been a part of the game that the way to beat a great passing offense is to get quick pressure on the quarterback. You don't have to get sacks, you just have to get on his ass before he's ready to get rid of the ball. The result, when you succeed at that, is what we saw last week. As much as people are killing the defense, they gave up all of 16 points last week, and kept the Jets from finding the end zone more than once despite being in good field position all day. As long as Belichick is the one breaking down the film and coming up with the defensive gameplan, I wouldn't wanna face them.
6. Colts - Here's the thing: as I've said before, the Colts' defense sucks. But Monday night reminded me of a very important principle: they can only give up one touchdown at a time, and Peyton always scores when he's down a touchdown or more, and practically always scores otherwise. If the other team doesn't hold up their end of the bargain, he wins the shootout. Who the hell cares that his receivers have the names of Frenchmen and puppies? He's Peyton Manning. He will beat you.
7. Eagles - I said last week that I was putting the Eagles where I did based on the assumption that we'd have a healthy Donovan McNabb coming out of the bye, and that assumption continues to dictate this ranking. I'm not down on the defense for getting picked apart by Drew Brees like everyone else does. Half of the Saints' points were scored off of turnovers, most notably the two touchdowns the Saints scored in the opening minutes of the second half, which turned the game into a blowout. The Eagles' defense was essentially on the field for the first 11 minutes of the third quarter, with their backs against the wall the entire time. When you look at it that way, it's hard to blame them for the fact that their backs broke.
8. Falcons - I feel like a broken record, but I have nothing much to add to my last opinion on the Falcons. We should finally get a chance to see Brady with some time to throw or some dudes wide open unless the Falcons conjure up a pass rush from out of nowhere. I don't see their deficiency in stopping the run being much of a problem against those pass-happy Pats, but down the road, I just don't think they can hang with the Saints in a shootout, and I'm not convinced a great defense couldn't pretty much shut them down. But against anything less, they should be able to out score their defense most weeks.
9. Packers - I was once totally in love with the Packers' defense, but then all of a sudden they couldn't tackle Cedric Benson and they couldn't get pressure on Carson Palmer and they couldn't even manage to get off the field on 3rd and 34. That kind of thing stays in your memory, especially when it happens against the Bungles. That they made it close late was admirable and an encouraging sign that their offense is gonna be what we thought they were, but man. 3rd and 34 against the Bengals. How do you blow that?
10. Vikings - I'm gonna continue to pretend the Vikings don't play in my NFL for as long as I can, because I can't stand the thought of them or the sight of them, but unfortunately, I couldn't justify anyone being ahead of them in this spot. Adrian Peterson is better than the remaining 22 teams in the league single-handedly, and their defense is good enough to justify putting them as high as you want to put them. But when they need to win games with the pass, and they will, because all teams eventually do, Brett Favre will lose them those games. He'll lose them because karma has to hate him by now, he'll lose them because he's 453 years old with a fucked up shoulder, and most of all he'll lose them because he thinks his arm is infallible and he'll eventually make a dumb throw. When you have that reckless schmuck as your quarterback, you go no higher than the lowest spot I can put you in without feeling like I'm just kidding myself.

Picks for week 3

(Bold= my preseason pick, Italics = what I would pick today)
Washington @ Detriot

Green Bay @ St. Louis
San Francisco @ Minnesota
Atlanta @ New England

Tennessee @ NY Jets

Kansas City @ Philadelphia

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Jacksonville @ Houston

New Orleans @ Buffalo

Chicago @ Seattle

Miami @ San Diego

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Denver @ Oakland

Indianapolis @ Arizona

Carolina @ Dallas

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Week 2 projections revisited

Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books, and with it, another round of my projections have been put to the test. Slightly worse performance this week than last (11-5 this week, 24-8 overall), but on the whole, things have looked largely as I expected them to. Without further ado, here's what I've learned:

Lessons learned from the games I missed:

Bengals at Packers: The Packers' defense couldn't manage to get off the field on third downs at all, getting stops, it seemed, only on the two possessions which ended in Carson Palmer interceptions. When they had the ball, a plethora of drops, a fumble by Ryan Grant to kill a drive that was shaping up to be an easy march for points, and the complete disappearance of Greg Jennings could have turned this game into a Bengals romp, but true to form, they bungled their way into a tight situation, surviving only as a result of a false start which killed the game's final seconds. Despite laying an egg, The Packers' defense still looks, to me, like a very good unit, and I expect them to look like the one which manhandled the Bears more frequently than the one Carson Palmer picked apart.

Baltimore at San Diego: To begin with, Shawne Merriman just isn't himself yet. I don't buy the notion that Tom Brady's struggles are ACL-related, but Merriman just doesn't seem to have any burst, and once he's blocked, he might as well be in a protective bubble until the play ends, because he isn't gonna be shedding it any time soon. Meanwhile, it doesn't look like the Ravens' defense is gonna be able to limit teams' scoring the way they're accustomed to, but they've still got playmakers and when the rubber meets the road, they're probably still gonna make plays. I doubt they'll keep scoring 30 points a game, or anywhere close to it, when they see a defense capable of generating some pressure without blitzing.

Giants at Dallas: I really didn't learn anything at all, except that I was too kind to the Cowboys in making my projections. I said then, and believe now, that the Cowboys are a pretty distant third, in my mind, to the Giants and Eagles, and that the biggest reasons for that was that their defense didn't impress me even a little bit and Tony Romo would find ways to lose whatever tight games they found themselves in. Lo and behold, in front of the "biggest crowd in NFL history" (about 20% of whom watched the game on video screens in the concourses) Tony Romo completed less than 50% of his passes, threw three interceptions, and amazingly, only lost because his defense couldn't stop Eli Manning marching the ball straight down the field to set up a game winning field goal, despite knowing exactly what was coming. When you allow a pair of guys starting their second NFL games at wide receiver on the road in the grand opening of the most opulent stadium the NFL has ever seen to catch 10 balls each, you fucking suck at defense. There's just no other way to see it.

And the teams I've missed on twice:

Patriots at Jets: Clearly, I was wrong about the Patriots not losing a game. But as I said then, I expected to be wrong about that. What I didn't expect to be wrong about was that the Patriots should have won that game. To put it simply, I slept on the Jets' defense. Rex Ryan's scheme is so different from what their holdovers have played in, and he was bringing in so many new parts, I just didn't think it would catch on right away. There's a lot of chatter right now about Tom Brady's knee, and perhaps it's valid, but I don't think it's fair to put the blame on Brady for his inability to bring his team back late on Sunday. The Jets' defense made it clear all week they intended to harass Brady by any means necessary, even if it meant letting receivers run down the sidelines totally uncovered. They succeeded in ruining their timing, if not at actually sacking Brady, and the Patriots didn't have an answer. I still think it's going to be the very rare week that holding the opponent to 16 points isn't good enough defensively to set up an easy Patriots win.

Saints at Eagles: I've missed on both of the Eagles' first two games, but my opinion hasn't changed even a little bit. Despite being urged to blame it, I thought the Eagles' defense played admirably given the competition. They got more turnovers/stops than I expect most teams to get against the Saints, despite being on the field most of the day thanks to an offense which didn't sustain drives and joined the special teams in committing a bevy of penalties and turnovers. It was, in short, an ugly game for the Eagles, but I don't think a very meaningful one at this point. If McNabb is healthy coming out of the bye week, even if they manage to lose against Kansas City this weekend, the Eagles will be fine. If we're looking at a Kevin Kolb offense for the rest of the season, say hello to mediocrity. Click me for the rest!

Charlie tips his hand: Happ to bullpen for postseason

If there was any doubt remaining as to Phils manager Charlie Manuel's plans for the postseason rotation, he would appear to have unwittingly revealed them last night. Making his first start after missing two with an oblique injury, Phils' rookie J.A. Happ lasted just three innings before being pulled from the game for "precautionary reasons" after grimacing on his way to cover first base. As Charlie put it after the game, "I thought we would take him out of the game for precautionary reasons, we need lefties." While that's undoubtedly true, Charlie left the most important phrase out of that thought: "in the bullpen."

Were Happ to be in the postseason rotation over Pedro Martinez, the Phils' current "fifth" starter, the defending champs would boast a starting rotation which featured three lefties in Happ, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee, in addition to righty Joe Blanton. Hard to see much of a "need" for lefties in that rotation, Happ or no, when it features the two best lefties in the NL not named Santana. The bullpen, on the other hand, currently features just one healthy southpaw, Jack Taschner, who has never had success getting lefties (or for that matter, righties) out in the Majors. With Scott Eyre and JC Romero dealing with injuries which have already lingered long past their anticipated expiration date, it would appear Happ is really the team's only option to bolster their left-handed relief corps, a fact which we learned last night isn't lost on Charlie Manuel. Click me for the rest!

Tulin's 10: Week 1

Click ahead for my week 1 top 10 NFL power rankings!

Welcome to the first edition of my weekly ranking of the top 10 teams in the NFL. Let's get down to business:

1. Steelers (1-0) The defending champs earned a hard fought win against the Titans last Thursday night, and oddly enough, I think Troy Polamalu's injury might well help this team in the long term. The vulnerability it gives them against the pass should make it much more plausible to score against them, which will force Mike Tomlin and Bruce Arians to stop trying to be a power running team because they aren't going to be playing 13-10 games. They're a better team throwing the ball than running it, even if they're giving up 21 points a game instead of 14.

2. Packers (1-0) I'm still just totally in love with this team, assuming the protection for Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd half was the real Packers offensive line, which I believe it was. Even if not, their defense completely dismantled what should be a pretty good Bears offense, something I think should happen just about every week. They have too many guys that can cover too much ground and too many pass rushers not to make quarterbacks' lives hell all year long.

3. Patriots (1-0) Losing Jerod Mayo for what appears to be about half the season is an absolute killer, but honestly, I'm still not seeing a game I think they should lose. Anyone choosing to look at Tom Brady the other night and see anything other than an assassin doesn't really understand football. Yeah, it took him a little time to get any kind of a rhythm going, but find me a QB other than Drew Brees who didn't last week. And he was playing the lions. Brady proved his health in the last 5 minutes of the game, the same way he's proven his greatness there over the years. Give him the ball in the 4th quarter with anything resembling a prayer and chances are, you will lose.

4. Eagles (1-0) This could change pretty quickly if McNabb doesn't play at a high level starting after the bye in week 4, but for now, I'm working under the assumption that he'll be back and himself with the team no worse than 1-2. If that's the case, they're an absolutely terrifying football team, as the Panthers could surely attest. There were a lot of questions about how the Eagles' D would look under Sean McDermott, and the answer was loud and clear in week 1: just like it did under Jim Johnson. Amazing what 10 years working as a genius' right hand man can do for ya, no?

5. Chargers (1-0) My second favorite team, like my favorite, could see a precipitous drop in the coming weeks if Shawne Merriman doesn't start making an impact. He looked slow and weak the other night, not even enough of a player to be a shell of his former self. The result, much like last year, was a serious vulnerability in the passing game, though the play that almost cost them the game was a completely blown coverage that Merriman would've had to be taking the snap to have any chance of salvaging. On the offensive side of the ball, I have to wonder if, even if he gets "starts," LT will be the #1 back on the depth chart ever again. What, exactly, isn't Darren Sproles doing better than him right now?

6. Giants (1-0) If Eli proves that he and his receivers are capable of making that one play to win a tight game on a consistent basis, the Giants will be #1 on this list in no time. Brandon Jacobs and their legion of unblockable pass rushers make them an absolute nightmare as is, and if Eli can burn teams who try to stack the line, they're practically unbeatable. The fact that they're this low should tell you my opinion of Eli and his receivers.

7. Bears (0-1) Despite seeing the absolute worst of Jay Cutler and losing Brian Urlacher for the season, I still see this as a playoff team. Cutler has always had his bad games, as all QBs do, and I think we'll be seeing that happen a hell of a lot this season against the Packers defense. Defensively, I don't see Urlacher's loss being that impactful from any standpoint other than the loss of leadership, which could hurt but can also be replaced. On the field, he's still a good player, but his best attribute, his range, has been steadily declining. I think the trio of Briggs, Hillenmeyer, and Tinoisamoa can cover more ground than Briggs, Urlacher, and Tinoisamoa without losing much of their ability to bring the ball carrier down. And having one of the best running backs in football and a quarterback who finally will give them a chance with the game on the line shouldn't hurt either.

8. Jets (1-0) Maybe it's the Jet apologist in me (11 years living in Manhattan and hating the Giants will do that to ya) but I totally believed what I saw last weekend in Houston. Week 1 of his first season as head coach, Rex Ryan had the Jets' defense, without two of the best players in its starting front seven, playing like the Ravens defense at its best. They're gonna make it very hard for most teams to score points. Their running game and offensive line should keep pressure off Mark Sanchez, who looked as calm and confident as any QB I saw week 1, rookie or no. I wanted to be wrong about the Jets this year and I think I just might've been.

9. Saints (1-0) Drew Brees remains one of the best QBs in the game, and should keep them in every single game they play, but there's still nothing to like about their defense or running game in my opinion. They allowed 27 points to the Lions with Matt Stafford literally staring down his receiver on every snap. It makes you wonder how much better that team might be if they had a coach who acknowledged the defensive side of the ball to go along with the ridiculous amount of firepower on their offense. As far as I can tell, Sean Payton doesn't even make that offense any better. Brees would complete passes in whatever system you put him in and Payton hasn't managed to get a damn thing out of the running game in his time there. Not that I think Sean Payton's a moron or anything.

10. Falcons (1-0) I make this pick with absolutely no conviction at all. It was either Atlanta or one of an AFC South trio which doesn't include the Jaguars. I think Peyton is all the Colts have, Chris Johnson the same for the Titans, and lord knows I question my pick of the Texans to win the division after the egg they laid against the Jets. So I'm left with the Falcons, whose offense is pretty good and whose defense did everything it could to win me over on Sunday, but did it against the Dolphins, who, let's be honest, suck on offense. There were still points to be had all day against Atlanta, the Dolphins just aren't capable of doing anything about it.
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