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    Wednesday, October 28, 2009

    "We know the score, we're gonna break down your door."

    Weather permitting, which, looking out my window this morning, seems like a pretty ridiculous idea, we're just eight hours away now from first pitch of the World Series. Through a haze of sophomoric sportswriting on both sides of the Mercer-Middlesex line, dueling armies of trashtalking tweeters taking cheap shot after cheap shot at each other's cities, and a startling dearth of actual analysis of the upcoming Fall Classic, we can finally just about see our way to a baseball game this evening. And just like every series we've seen the Phillies play in the last two Octobers, the biggest advantage held by either team lurks under the radar, perched just atop the railing of the Phillies' dugout.

    When average Joes, young and old alike, press the panic button, reaching deep into their scouting reports for guidance instead of allowing the game to present itself to them, instead of giving their players a chance to play, and win, the game for themselves (see: Aceves, Alfredo, ALCS game 3), it echoes down through the team. Charlie Manuel's calm, on the other hand, and his belief that his players can bail him out should his undying faith in every one of his players be misplaced, define this team. Charlie won't outthink himself, and he won't let his players either. It's wonderful to have the best lineup in baseball, which the Phillies do, and to play stellar defense, which the Phillies do, but what makes them a championship team is their mentality. It's what makes the Phillies the toughest team in baseball, and it's what is going to eventually win them this series in six games. Click me for the rest!

    Tuesday, October 27, 2009

    Week 7 revisited

    The Eagles' less than impressive victory in Washington mercifully over with, week 7 of the 2009 NFL season is now in the books. My preseason picks, which every day seem sillier and sillier, went 9-4 this week, bringing my record to 73-30 for the season. On to the reflections and the rankings:

    Lessons learned from Games I Missed
    Buffalo at Carolina: I think everyone learned weeks ago that Carolina was a pretty shitty team, and everyone with their heads anywhere other than their asses always knew Buffalo was one. What's there to learn from this game other than that Ryan Fitzpatrick's brand of mediocrity may be slightly more efficient than Trent Edwards'?

    Jets at Oakland: This was one of those games I would've never picked this way if I made the picks this week. Before the season, I thought the Raiders would be the second best team out west at 7-9. Nothing special, but I figured Jamarcus Russell would show some improvement, McFadden and Bush would make for a nice backfield tandem, and their defense would be just good enough to carry them to a handful of wins over teams like Denver and KC. Moreover, I thought the Jets would have a lot of problems offensively and perhaps defensively as well if Sexy Rexy's scheme didn't take hold quickly. Clearly, I know better than all that now. So what did I learn from this game? That even with a quarterback feeling queasy on the sidelines and your most explosive player going out for the season right off the bat due to a naaaaasty injury, there IS ABSOLUTELY NO FUCKING EXCUSE TO EVER LOSE TO THE OAKLAND RAIDERS! Jamarcus Russell is still the worst quarterback in football, McFadden is still invisible, their defense is still a bunch of tackling dummies, and Tom Cable, charged with assault or not, is a pathetic excuse for an NFL head coach, hired by a senile old man purely because he was weak enough to be dominated. In other words, I learned, as I already knew, just how disgustingly fucking pathetic the Eagles' loss to Oakland was.

    Chicago at Cincinnati: For starters, I owe the Bengals an apology. I declared last week that the wheels were beginning to come off in Cincy, after an uninspired effort both offensively and defensively, in Houston, and a down week for the NFL's leading rusher, Cedric Benson. Clearly, I was wrong. It boggles the mind to think, but after all those years of bungling their way to mediocrity, Marvin Lewis seems to really have his team's ear. I can't really say I'm learning anything seeing Jay Cutler do his usual dance between great games and horrid ones. Being a Chargers apologist of the highest order outside legitimate Charger fans, I've seen this movie plenty of times before.

    Cardinals at Giants: The Giants certainly haven't shown well against good competition the last two weeks. Eli played his second straight bad game, which tickles me fuckin pink. Brandon Jacobs gained 76 yards and scored a touchdown to put up easily his best game of the season, but carried the ball a grand total of 13 times, as the G-Men made me seriously wonder if Andy Reid was doing a guest play calling stint, throwing the ball 37 times against just 25 runs. If not for the the Yankees clinching the pennant and the "sportswriters" acting like it's amateur hour at Caroline's, there would probably be some pretty intense heat coming down on Tom Coughlin for totally abandoning his offensive philosophy in a game in which he never trailed by more than 10 points. Why on earth, given how god awful Eli looked Sunday, would you pick that night to throw the ball 60% of the time? It isn't as if the Cardinals were dicing them to pieces, as they're sometimes prone to do. Kurt Warner completed just barely better than 15% of his passes, and the Cards couldn't muster any kind of a running game despite seeing pass coverage looks all night. So, ole red face, you might wanna give Mariano Rivera a call and perhaps send him a fruit basket for keeping the hounds off your moronic ass for a minute, because there is no explanation for that kind of idiocy.

    Power Rankings

    1. Saints - I genuinely don't believe there's a defense that can stop this offense when they need to score. Let me be the first I know of to say it: I could see this team staying undefeated all the way through the regular season.

    2. Colts - Peyton didn't throw for 300 yards this week, for the first time all season, but still managed to emerge victorious from his third straight bye week. Things get marginally tougher the next couple of games with San Francisco and Houston coming to town, but let's be honest: even Peyton is probably getting anxious for his annual showdown with the Patriots in week 10, just so he can see something resembling competition.

    3. Vikings - I know they lost. Common sense should dictate that I put the team that beat them, who were only a few spots back last week, ahead of them. But here's what I saw: two drives that likely would've won the game for the Vikings ended in the 4th quarter by long turnover returns for touchdown. Those are what we like to call "freak plays," especially the second one, a screen pass to the normally sure-handed Chester Taylor for what would have almost surely been a first down if he held on, which bounced right off of Taylor's hands, past his blockers, into the waiting arms of Kieran Fox. Play that 4th quarter 9 more times and I genuinely believe we wouldn't see another Steelers win.

    4. Broncos - Common sense also dictates that the Broncos can't slide on their bye week. I'm not putting them ahead of Minnesota right now because, honestly, I still think Minnesota would rip the Broncos to shreds right now if you put them on the same field. So the guys in the bumblebee uniforms stay put for the moment.

    5. Patriots - There were a few minutes, before the Bucs scored their lone touchdown in London, when the Patriots lead their last two opponents by a combined 80-0. Anyone wanna doubt Brady's knee or Belichick's scheme anymore? Their upcoming bye week is gonna give them the most competition they've seen in weeks. It should at least be interesting to see how things play out when the Dolphins head to Boston on Sunday, but given the Dolphins' likely fragile state of mind after blowing a big lead to the Saints, and the fact that Belichick has had 10 months to think about the fact that he let the wildcat-happy Dolphins beat him twice last year en route to winning the division, I'd be more surprised to see a close game than an absolute annihilation.

    6. Steelers - They knocked off the previously undefeated Vikings, which made me thoroughly happy both because I have their defense in fantasy and the Vikings make me as angry as anyone or anything on earth right now, but objectively, what I saw was a defense that played the best 3 quarters I've seen them play all season, and still couldn't manage to stop the Vikings when it counted, if not for Chester Taylor failing to catch a screen pass. I could give a shit less about common sense, power rankings are about what teams I think are better than others, and right now, I think the Steelers got a lucky win against a better team.

    7. Bengals - Last week, I ranked them by default. This week, I'm genuinely impressed. Not that there was any individual aspect of their win this week that stood out as something I didn't think them capable of, unless you count resiliency. I figured they'd crumble, as they always have, at the first sign of adversity, coming off their loss to the Texans and finding themselves suddenly tied with a Steelers team they'd beaten just a few weeks ago atop the AFC North. I was wrong, and for the second time, I apologize to the Bengals for underestimating their toughness, both mental and physical.

    8. Cardinals - It wasn't a visually impressive performance, but that's all the more reason I respect it so much. The Cardinals went on the road and won a tough, grind it out sort of game against a good team, something which I literally didn't think they were capable of doing. Not even a little bit. If they can mix a couple of these sorts of games in with their typical 100+ passer rating 30 point home performances, there's nothing I can see standing in the way of a repeat as NFC West champs.

    9/10. Giants/Eagles - It's a Philly/New York week, though suffice it to say the showdown for the NFC East lead is buried on the undercard for once. But with the two teams set to meet Sunday, and neither doing a damn thing over the last two weeks to inspire much confidence at all, there's really no reason to pretend I can tell the difference between them right now. They're both superbly talented teams, but neither of them can manage to play like it consistently, be it the Giants playing like midgets against the first couple of good teams they've seen this year, or the Eagles doing so against a couple of garbage teams. One of these teams will stay in the top 10 next week, the other one absolutely will not.


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    Wednesday, October 21, 2009

    Week 6 revisited

    My picks took a slight step back this week, from 11-3 in week 5 to 10-4 in week 6, bringing my overall record to 64-26. I'd like to be pleased with my picks this week, but three of the four games I missed involved the three teams which own my heart. Still, for preseason picks, I'd have to say my record has been beyond acceptable so far. On to the self-flagellation!

    Lessons Learned from Games I Missed

    Kansas City at Washington: I learned that even with my back literally turned to it for the entirety of the game, a football game can still bore me to death. Just knowing that that putrid display of heartless schmucks masquerading as NFL teams was going on behind me was enough to make me want to stop watching football. Todd fucking Collins played half of that game at quarterback, didn't even surpass Jason Campbell's 89 passing yards, and his team lost by a total of 8 points. Why? Because the Chiefs are every bit as bad. 6 field goals, and a last-minute safety, that's all your scoring in this game. I'm all for defensive struggles, but not when they're happening by default. It's just so sad that the Eagles are inevitably going to lose to the Redskins at some point this year.

    Buffalo at NY Jets: As the second half of this game started, right about the moment the Eagles were finishing up their performance as tackling dummies at Raiders defensive practice, Michelle was ripping poor Mark Sanchez apart, despite a Jets halftime lead, for his struggles with the wind. At the time, I didn't really have much of a response, other than to say "he's a rookie from Cali, what do you expect on the first wintry Sunday of the year?" Since then, I've had some time to think, and I've come up with a better response. Eli Manning, Super Bowl winner, looked every bit as bad as Sanchez in the divisional playoffs last year against the Eagles. As did Brett Favre, Super Bowl winner, in the NFC Championship Game the previous year against the Giants. There are two common threads in all of these games: heavy winds, and immense amounts of pressure on the quarterbacks. It's easy to blame the wind, and to make fun of Sanchez, and there's probably some validity to it. But pressure makes every quarterback look bad, and until I see Sanchez missing open receivers on a windy day despite having time, I'm holding off on that. Truth be told, the biggest reason the Jets lost the game had nothing to do with the offense, and will likely be the biggest reason their season goes in the tank from here: Kris Jenkins left the game and was lost for the season, and immediately, the Bills started owning time of possession, field position, and the scoreboard. Unless the Jets can find a very, very large, very, very strong man to take his place, Sexy Rexy's defense is probably gonna get gashed by opposing running backs on a weekly basis.

    Denver at San Diego: Despite my strongest hopes, I didn't really think the Chargers had much of a chance going into this game. They've proven themselves, on a weekly basis, to be a defense which just isn't capable of tackling anyone, and to make matters worse, they're also doing a worse job of protecting Philip Rivers with every passing week. They have no real running game to speak of, and of course, they're still coached by a complete fucking idiot. But I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention the Broncos who, yet again, disproved a notion I had about them. San Diego essentially neutralized both the Broncos' running game, and their top two wide receivers, and Kyle Orton still played a nearly flawless game, connecting on better than 2/3 of his passes and continuing to protect the football as well as any passer in the game this season. I'm officially a believer in everything the Denver Broncos are selling.

    Philadelphia at Oakland: As the 1:00 games came to a close, Michelle and I headed home from Josie's in spite of the Eagles not being on TV in NYC. My rationale, as I've found myself saying more and more frequently over the last couple of seasons, was "if the Eagles aren't gonna slaughter this team, I don't wanna have to watch it." Sadly, it's getting pretty damn easy to know which of those sorts of games I don't wanna watch. Just as much as you can take it to the bank that the Eagles are gonna win their first game after the bye as long as Andy Reid is the coach, you can pretty much count on them to play to the level of whatever competition they find when they go on the road. Sometimes, that means giving New England a hell of a scare during their 16-0 season, and much more often it means playing a shitty game with a 75-25 pass-run ratio against some pathetic excuse for a football team, in this case the Raiders. I can't even get mad about it anymore, because it wasn't even remotely hard to see it coming. It's cliche at this point to talk about Andy Reid's refusal to run the ball more, and obvious that it costs the team games. What I have to keep reminding myself of, and what I think just about everyone else in Eagledom has completely forgotten at this point, is that when it comes to games the team needs, the ones in late November, December, and January, he always remembers to run the ball. At this point, I have pretty much adopted the rationale that he ignores the run early in the season to keep his backs fresh. It's all that keeps me sane. But as long as Andy Reid is the coach, which is gonna be the case for a while, there are gonna be games like this.

    Power Rankings

    1. Saints - The Saints made Eli Manning look like Kevin Kolb. Down the road, that probably isn't gonna seem like that big of a stretch, from what we saw of Kolb in his second start, but it tells me a hell of a lot about the Saints' defense right now. They come to play every single week, and even when they give up some points, they have the pass rushers to make quarterbacks hang balls up in the air, and the center fielder in Darren Sharper to run under it and make them pay. I can't call them a complete team because when they have it their way they don't run the ball very much, but they're a team capable of winning all types of games now that their defense can stand up to legitimate offenses.
    2. Colts - After a pair of bye weeks (one of which came against the Titans) the Colts get back in action this Sunday in St. Louis. How is it fair that the Colts get to take three weeks off from football and get two wins in that time?
    3. Vikings - I hate this team so much it makes me wanna cry. It's completely irrational, they've done nothing to me, but they just make my stomach turn. Fuck Adrian Peterson for making it look so easy. Fuck Brett Favre for existing, and for thus far this season looking like the most disciplined, and best, quarterback in the NFL not named Brees or Manning. Fuck Percy Harvin for being friends with Tim Tebow and for not sucking like I expected him to. Fuck all of it. I cannot wait to see it somehow fall apart. It's gotta happen. It simply has to. Doesn't it?
    4. Broncos - As I said earlier, I'm sold on this team. How sold? When I picked games before the season, I had them 1-5 entering their upcoming bye, and 2-8 after. If I could amend those picks now, I'd have them winning 8 of their final 10 games, with the only losses on the road at Baltimore and Indianapolis.
    5. Patriots - Impressive as it was, a 59-0 win against the Titans really didn't improve the Pats' standing in my eyes at all. But then again, I'm one of the only people in the world who hadn't jumped off their bandwagon to begin with. They jump up two spots because the NFC East teams once ahead of them left no doubt in my mind that right now, the Pats are a better team.
    6. Giants - If the Giants had just lost to the Saints, I would've probably only dropped them a slot or two, but they lost quite convincingly, and more importantly, they still can't get Brandon Jacobs going. Ahmad Bradshaw is a perfectly nice complementary back, and he sure did torch the Raiders last week, but if they're gonna be even a decent offensive football team they need play action off of Brandon Jacobs to be a huge weapon, and right now they can't afford to give him the carries needed to establish it. Combine that with injuries to their defensive back seven which, as they seem to for the Giants every year, are beginning to mount, and you have a team which still looks like the best in the NFC East, but not particularly like one of the elite teams in the league.
    7. Steelers - People can suck on Rashard Mendenhall's dick all they want, and lord knows they seem to want to right now, but the Steelers didn't run the ball particularly well either of the last two weeks, against Lions and Browns defenses which flat out suck. The good news is that Mike Tomlin and co. have clearly moved on from the idiotic notion that they can suddenly make their offense a power running offense when that just isn't what they are. I spent over a year feeling like the only person in America who noticed the Steelers had an elite passing offense, and finally, the world seems to be catching up. But until they play against a couple of decent teams, it's hard to have much of an idea right now where their defense is. From the looks of it, I don't think it would've held up to any of the teams ahead of them if they had played them in the last month.
    8. Falcons - I saw exactly none of this game, thanks to the Phillies' 11-0 beatdown of the Dodgers which was on at the same time, but I'm surprised/mildly impressed to see the Falcons holding a decent offensive football team like the Bears to 14 points. Then again, the Bears continue to get absolutely no production from their running game. Jay Cutler had more yards on one of his three carries than Matt Forte had on his 15 combined. I'll be more willing to consider the possibility that Atlanta's defense doesn't suck when they shut down a team with some kind of balance.
    9. Bengals - The wheels may have already started coming off for the cardiac Bengals, as the defensively challenged Texans managed to hold Cedric Benson to 44 yards, which is much more like the Cedric Benson we all know and make fun of. Without being able to use the ground game to control the clock, the Bengals didn't really stand much much of a chance Sunday, and saw their defense allow a season-high 28 points. They don't need huge numbers out of Benson, but they need him to grind it out to have a chance, and I still don't think he can on a weekly basis.
    10. Eagles - I don't like putting the Birds here this week. I feel like I should be punishing them for that pathetic excuse for a football game they played in the black hole. But when I look, even through my haze of disappointment, at the bunch of 3-2 teams I've left myself to choose between for the 10 spot, I just can't find one I really believe the Eagles aren't miles ahead of. Playing the way the Eagles did, losing games to the likes of the Raiders, running the ball 14 times in a game, these are all hideous acts unbecoming of one of the top 10 teams in the NFL, but that doesn't preclude the team which committed these sins from being among them. It just makes me wish I could bring myself to hate them.

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    Wednesday, October 14, 2009

    When I was younger, so much younger than today, I never needed anybody's help in any way...


    There's perhaps no greater experience than seeing a beloved band for the first time. I'll never forget a particular Saturday in early May of 2004, a day on which I had that experience twice. It started rather early in the day, one which followed a long, thrilling night of poker and debauchery in the company of good friends. The next morning, in the company of a handful of my closest friends at the time, I schlepped, hangover and all, down to Asbury Park for the Skate and Surf Festival (since bastardized as The Bamboozle and moved north to Giants Stadium) to see, among other less memorable bands, Further Seems Forever reunited with their original lead singer, Chris Carrabba of Dashboard Confessional, performing their only album together. It was, and remains, one of my favorite albums of all time, but I had never been fortunate enough to see them live before Chris struck out on his own. It took only minutes inside the dim, loud, stuff convention hall for me to seek refuge (AKA a smoke and a pillow) in our hotel room across the parking lot. As I stumbled across the grass lot, I remember being literally stopped in my tracks by a female voice unlike any I had ever heard. It wasn't the best, but it was without a doubt the most passionate. That was the first time I ever heard Hayley Williams of Paramore. I stood in one spot, transfixed, behind a crowd of perhaps 60 people and listened to every note of their 25 minute set, as shocked as I was thrilled to have unwittingly stumbled into a band which I had never heard of before, but knew I wanted to hear as much as possible of from that point on. By the time their set ended, I found myself rejuvenated. I don't think I set foot in the hotel once between that point and the aftermath of Further Seems Forever's set.

    Like literally thousands of the festival's attendees, I was stuck outside, a victim of an overcrowded main hall which simply couldn't accomodate every single one of the festivalgoers trying to watch the same thing. Had it not been for a large group of people which rushed, and distracted, the trio of security guards manning the huge loading doors which lead straight from the boardwalk into the main standing room area, I wouldn't have made it inside. As it was, i slipped by just in time to hear Chris say "we made a record one time and we'd like to play it for you tonight." I screamed, I pumped my fist, and I did my damndest to dance a little bit while packed in like a sardine. The experiences couldn't have been more opposite, but they shared a single common thread: the buzz of hearing songs which touch your core performed live for the first time.

    This Thursday evening, I'm poised to know that buzz again, for the first time in ages, when I see The Gaslight Anthem at Terminal 5. I fell completely in love with Gaslight the very first time I heard them back in March. I spent essentially the entire time between that moment and the moment Paramore's "brand new eyes" made its' way onto the internet (I've since bought it, Hailey, I promise!) listening to Gaslight, falling as deeply in love with them as I've ever been with any other band. Months of anticipation come to an end Thursday evening, as I get my first chance to see the band in the flesh.

    As fate would have it, this Thursday also marks a major step towards the resolution of the Phillies' quest to repeat as World Champions. One of the few things I've ever known which trumped my love of music is my love of sports, and my devotion, as anyone who knows me knows, to my beloved Philly teams. Watching the Phightins bring home the Commissioner's Trophy last October was like seeing every band I've ever loved opening for the Beatles. This all leads me back, of course, to Thursday night, which as most anyone reading this surely knows, marks game 1 of the NLCS between the Phillies and Dodgers. It's only game 1 of a seven game series, I know, but having invested somewhere in the neighborhood of 500+ hours on the Phillies this year, and more than I'd ever like to think about over the course of my lifetime, and knowing how electric every single pitch of that game will be, missing even an inning of a seven game series doesn't just seem hard to swallow, it seems like a slap in my own face. But then, of course, so does missing a show I agonized over during the weeks it took for Gaslight to announce the NYC portion of their tour.

    So here's my plan: I'm gonna go spend the next couple days playing Brutal Legend, reminding myself that the framerate's instability is a 360 issue, not a My 360 issue (i have RRoD paranoia issues). I leave it to you, friends, tweeps, countrymen, to decide which side of my face needs to be slapped: the music-loving side, or the sports-loving side. Write-in votes, especially those which make fun of my indecision, are encouraged. For anyone needing a quick refresher course, I leave you with a brilliant slideshow of the Phillies' epic NLDS game 3 victory, compiled by the equally brilliant Macho Row, as well as a video of The Gaslight Anthem performing my favorite song of theirs, "The Backseat." Enjoy, and please vote! You're my only hope!
    The Phillies


    vs. The Gaslight Anthem


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    Tuesday, October 13, 2009

    Week 5 revisited

    Now that I think I've officially caught my breath from last night and Sunday's Phillies games, it's time to take a look at how my preseason predictions for week 5 fared, before getting down to the business of this week's edition of my top 10 power rankings. For the first time this season, week 5 saw a week-to-week improvement, amounting to my best week since week 1. I went 11-3, bringing my season record to 54-22, and if not for a healthy dose of preseason wishful Favre-hating, I would probably have gone 12-2.

    Lessons Learned from the Games I Missed

    Vikings at Rams: I hate Brett Favre. And I didn't think the Rams were gonna be quite as bad as they are, though I thought they'd be bad enough to be 5-11. But in my mind, I wanted to believe that at home, against a Vikings team I thought would still be as one dimensional as ever, the Rams could squeak this one out. If I had been picking games on Saturday, I assure you, I would've picked the Vikings to cover whatever huge spread they would've had to cover. But the whole point of this exercise is to see how much I actually knew entering the season, and in this case, I was wrong.

    Bengals at Ravens: The Bengals still seem to be a team playing over their heads, but it doesn't seem to bother them much. They still don't look like much on either side of the ball, but Cedric Benson's slow, steady rise to the NFL lead in rushing yards is shortening games, their defense is doing just enough to stay in striking distance, and, well, we've all seen their exploits at the ends of games. If not for a Broncos miracle (more on that in a moment) the Bengal tigers would be 5-0, but of course, if not for a few miracles of their own, they could be 0-5. Strange as it is to say, the Bengals have been the most interesting watch in the NFL thus far in 2009.

    Patriots at Broncos: I still expect the Broncos to take a rather precipitous tumble back to earth, but they're a much better team than I ever dreamed they'd be none the less. Mike Nolan, who oversaw some of the worst defensive teams in the NFL the last few years in San Francisco, has the Broncos attacking the line of scrimmage, and dominating it. Couple that with a certain #20 whose attitude seems to have infected everyone around him, as it did in Philly for the last decade plus, and you have a unit which can more than make up for the inconsistency of the Broncos' offense. Which isn't to say the Broncos' offense is bad, but the magic touch does seem to be wearing off their running game as the weeks go by, and Kyle Orton isn't a very consistent thrower of the football. When he's on, he can make any throw you could ask, but he goes through prolonged stretches which would make Jamarcus Russell blush. That all being said, if not for Brady overthrowing Moss and underthrowing Welker on easy touchdowns, the Broncos wouldn't have won this game. If the Pats find that timing any time soon, they should still run away with the East, as a defense which seemed incredibly vulnerable after giving up 25 points to Buffalo in week 1, has allowed just 16.75 points per game since then, and just got its best player and signal caller back in Jerod Mayo.

    Power Rankings

    1. Giants (5-0): They played the Raiders, they destroyed the Raiders, they benched Eli before halftime to protect his injured foot. Not quite coming, seeing, and conquering, but for the purposes of maintaining their grip on the top rung on the ladder, it was more than sufficient.

    2. Saints (4-0): The only easier way not to slip in the power rankings than playing the Raiders? Bye week. The Saints should come into their showdown this Sunday with the only team I have above them rested, healthy, and the beneficiaries of an extra week of preparation. In other words, don't be surprised if the G-men leave the Superdome Sunday in the second slot, or worse.

    3. Colts (5-0): The AFC's best team by a long shot, Indianapolis is only truly vulnerable to an injury to Peyton Manning. Otherwise, any games they lose are gonna be games where the other team just makes a few more plays than them. Far and away the best team in the AFC.

    4. Vikings (5-0): Also giving the Saints a run for their money this week in the competition to see who had the easiest road to maintaining their ranking were Brett Favre and the purple teletubbies. They make me sick, and I still hate acknowledging them as one of the NFL's best teams, but, well, they handled St. Louis more than well enough not to allow me to drop them even a spot this week. Trust me, though, I will always be on the lookout for any sort of a weakness.

    5. Eagles (3-1): As I've said all season, a healthy McNabb and Westbrook make this one of the best teams in the NFL. Getting a huge game from Jeremy Maclin, to go along with Desean Jackson, Shady McCoy, and all the complementary pieces, is just icing on the cake. When fully stocked, this offense is as good as any in the league. And it doesn't hurt to have had Tampa Bay on the other side of the ball last week, either.

    6. Broncos (5-0): As impressive a win as Sunday against New England was, it came primarily as a result of two badly missed throws by Tom Brady on easy touchdowns. So, they easily could have lost the only game they won against a good team other than their week 1 immaculate deflection victory over Cincy. In other words, they may be 5-0, but it's still a soft 5-0. That said, their defense is playing well enough right now to continue giving their mediocre offense a chance. If they keep finding a way to get Brandon Marshall the ball late in close games, I like their chances. But for the games to stay close, that defense probably has to make it happen.

    7. Pats (3-2): The defense is rounding into form very nicely, and should only improve the further removed from his injury Jerod Mayo gets. All that's stopping them from skyrocketing back to the top of the heap is a continued lack of timing/chemistry/whatever makes a quarterback and his receivers see the same things in a defense. Watching him in the pocket, Brady is as calm, poised, and fearless as ever, he's just not on the same page as his teammates. That can get worked out pretty quickly when you're talking about guys as good as New England runs out there.

    8. Bengals (4-1): If I had to put money on it today, I still wouldn't bet on the Bengals to win 10 or more games this year, but I'll concede they're better than I thought and they seem to have developed a knack for making the play at the end of the game, which can't be discounted. But I just can't help but expect their defense to start getting gashed and Cedric Benson to start running, as I literally just seconds ago heard Michael Wilbon describe it, "like a ballerina," as he did in Chicago. Until that happens, however, their record is their record and, while it might not automatically warrant putting them ahead of teams with similar records who I think are better, it certainly merits putting them ahead of teams with similar records who I've seen them beat.

    9. Steelers (3-2): The Steelers slide, despite a win, because right now I think the Broncos would beat them if they played at a neutral site and I just can't justify putting them ahead of a Bengals team they lost to, even if I still think they're a better team. Simple as that. I'm still not terribly impressed by Rashard Mendenhall, because, well, he didn't even really dominate the Lions' defense. He looked a shit ton better than he ever had aside from his breakout game last week against San Diego, but the common threads here are slow defenses that can't tackle. He won't outrun decently fast linebackers and until he starts breaking tackle attempts by people who can actually tackle, his success is essentially meaningless. But they still have one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, and if they get Polamalu back healthy and keep Casey Hampton, the most underrated defensive player in the NFL, healthy, they''ll be a dominant defensive team again in no time.

    10. Falcons (3-1): Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and co. absolutely dismantled a 49ers defense which had a lot of people talking through the season's first four weeks, confirming what we already knew: the Falcons have a potent, portable, balanced offense that can give even the best defense fits. When their own defense gets to line up across from a Frank Gore-less 49ers offense, games will look like Sunday. But it's still hard to envision them shutting down any of the offenses listed ahead of them with the exceptions of the Broncos and Bengals.
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    Wednesday, October 7, 2009

    As T.O. might say: get your brooms ready.

    I'm having trouble keeping my thoughts together, as the last few minutes refuse to pass between now and the 2:37 first pitch, but basically, it goes like this: the Phils are just better. Their lineup is better, especially when factoring in the likelihood of the Rockies facing four lefthanded starters in a five game series. Their starting pitching is better, especially when you factor in the Phils' career ownership of the Rockies' first three starters: Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel, and in limited action, Ubaldo Jimenez.

    Here's where I take a leap: Brad Lidge seemed to really take something of value out of getting the last out in the clincher. He looked like his 2008 self taking the mound, albeit in meaningless games, over the weekend. I'm probably kidding myself, but I just have a feeling he's gonna be fine. I truly believe that if they can get past Jimenez today -- which might well require Lidge getting a save because I think all of us who watch the team know Charlie is giving him the first shot -- the next two games shouldn't be close. Cole is a proven October beast, as are Pedro and Blanton, who I think are the realistic possibilities for game 3. The Phillies have seen a lot of Aaron Cook and Jason Hammel and have flat out owned them. They'll do it again. Phils sweep.
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    Tuesday, October 6, 2009

    Week 4 revisited

    First and foremost, stay tuned after the introverted portion of this post for my weekly power rankings, to be included in this post from here on out in hopes of avoiding the absent-mindedness that kept me from posting any after week 3.

    Last week, I speculated that my days as a better than .500 predictor of NFL games may soon be coming to an end if rather prominent trends (i.e. my percentage of correct picks decreasing on a weekly basis) didn't reverse themselves. Following a 9-5 week, bringing my record to 43-19 on the season, I'm officially on mediocrity watch. Let's take a look at what went wrong:

    Lessons Learned from the Games I Missed

    Cincinnati at Cleveland: While doing my projections, I couldn't see the difference between the two teams from Ohio. By the time they played this game, it was rather obvious. I don't think the Bengals are anywhere near as good as their 3-1 record, but they're playing much better defense than they have in years and, at least momentarily, they're getting enough out of Cedric Benson to keep defenses "honest," opening up opportunities for Carson Palmer in the passing game. Couple a Bengals team which looks like it's solidly mediocre with a Browns team that is somehow even worse than I thought they were, and falling further into disarray every week, and it wasn't hard to see this missed pick coming at all.

    Jacksonville at Tennessee: As far as I was able to tell entering the season, I was actually less impressed with the Titans than almost anyone. I mean, I only had them at 8-8. But not even I had any idea how big the step backwards their defense was taking would be. It's one thing to give up 31 points to the Texans, who are a stacked at the skill positions better than perhaps any team in the NFL, but to allow the Jags and Jets to put up 60+ points in the two games which followed is simply pathetic. Kerry Collins and the Tennessee offense is actually performing better than most of us expected them to be, but with a defense that's giving San Diego, Cleveland, and Tampa a run for the worst in football, it doesn't matter in the slightest. The way this team is playing, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they're the ones in control of which team gets to trade into the #1 slot in the draft to take Sam Bradford.

    San Francisco at St. Louis: This was a very similar situation to the Ohio bowl I outlined above. I didn't give either of these teams much credit, at all, entering the season, though I did think San Francisco was the better of the two. But as a general rule, when picking between two teams I would describe as "awful," I pick the one playing at home. Honestly, I don't even think SF is much better than I thought they were. Slightly better defense than anticipated, but a passing game which still isn't good enough to win from behind. However, given the problems Arizona has right now, I'd be pretty surprised if the 49ers don't win the NFC West, officially cementing their position as the tallest midgets. Who else thinks any division with an overall sub-.500 record should lead to automatic realignment? What fun are the playoffs when only 10 of the 12 teams which make it have any right to be there?

    Dallas at Denver: You would think that I must've learned something positive about the Broncos, who have now won more games than I thought they would all year, now that they're sitting at 4-0. You would be wrong. This game taught me, as I had already suspected, that Dallas is going to have to overachieve to get to mediocrity. The Cowboys are, without a doubt, a bad football team. Their defense is absolutely pathetic against the pass, as is their passing game. They're not terrible at running the ball or stopping others from doing so, which is the only thing keeping them in games, but as comfortable as opposing quarterbacks look in the pocket and as awful as the Cowboys' secondary is at tackling, it literally doesn't matter. So what is supposed to impress me about the Broncos managing all of 17 points against them? Denver isn't anywhere near as bad as I thought they were, I'll grant that, but I can't really get excited about their defense allowing 26 points through four games when the first three of them came against the Bengals, Browns, and Raiders. It'll be fun to see how many times over the season's final 12 games the Broncos allow more points in one week than they did in the first four.

    Green Bay at Minnesota: The Vikings are better, and the Packers worse, than I expected. Actually, to be specific, the Packers are worse than I expected and the Vikings are better than I had hoped. Green Bay's defense, which was supposed to be an aggressive, zone blitzing 3-4 unit in the mold of the Steelers and Patriots, hasn't been generating even a little bit of pressure. In fact, they have managed to turn their best pass rusher, Aaron Kampman, into perhaps the worst pass covering linebacker in football. It's like watching Chris Gocong if he had played as a rookie. Compounding matters, the Pack hasn't coped at all with the loss of starting left tackle Chad Clifton, robbing Aaron Rodgers and his stellar group of receivers of anything resembling the time necessary to get the ball down the field. The good news for the Packers, and for those of us who thought they'd be an elite team, is that these should be correctable issues. Meanwhile, the Vikings have looked like everything I, a proud Favre-hater, was praying they wouldn't be. They still have some trouble with quarterbacks who have time, but with the best defensive line in football with the best pass rusher at the end of it, not too many have. It still makes me wanna puke, though.

    Power Rankings

    1. Giants - If Eli's play is significantly hampered in the long term by his injury, the G-Men won't stay atop the rankings for too long, but at the moment, they're the best team. New Orleans and the Colts are flashier and the Vikings will get more headlines as long as they have Favre, but it's as simple as this: of the four teams, the Giants and Vikings run the ball better, which will always give them a leg up against the pass-happy Saints and Colts. Perhaps more importantly, the Giants still have a stable full of pass rushers along the defensive line which continue to give opposing quarterbacks fits on third down. How do you beat a team which brings as much pressure rushing three or four as most teams do on an all-out blitz? Much as I hate to say it, I just don't think you do.

    2. Saints - At first glance, it would appear the Saints' quick passing game is the answer to my last question. Teams which put pressure on Drew Bress, or at least the teams that try to, find themselves burned by quick passes and, inevitably, end up taking their chances in zone coverage. The problem I find myself running into when it comes to beating the Giants that way is that, generally, the Giants don't have to rush more than 4 to create the sort of pressure most teams blitzes do. Quick passing will back a heavy blitz off every time, but when the pressure is all coming from in front of a typical zone coverage, there won't be anywhere to go with the football. Luckily for New Orleans, there's exactly one team in the NFL capable of generating that kind of a pass rush entirely from along the defensive line.

    3. Colts - What's to say? Peyton Manning is the best pure thrower of the football I've ever seen, and with every passing week, the people you hear repeating that sentiment come from a little further back in time. If they manage to play any kind of defense at all, or even go against a team with a slight deficiency at offensive tackle, they blow teams out. There just isn't a reliable way to beat them other than having the ball last in a shootout.

    4. Vikings - It's going to take some nailbiters for this team to beat teams with either a well-balanced offense or a dominant passing game, a result of their inability to defend the pass by means other than pressuring the quarterback, but for the most part, it shouldn't matter. Favre's still got the laser rocket arm, Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the league, and their defense still makes it very hard to run the ball with any consistency. They have one of the few defensive fronts I've ever seen which looks like it can wear out an offensive line over the course of a game. But against an offense which makes them respect play action and/or finds a way to block Jared Allen, the Vikes should allow a pretty decent number of points. And of course, in my heart, I still believe and will always believe that by the time it's all said and done, Brett will do something stupid with the ball and it will cost them dearly, because he always does.

    5. Patriots - Maybe I'm just scarred by the Super Bowl lo those many years ago, but I still find myself sold on the Pats. They won't dominate defensively, but with every game, the margin for error for their defense gets wider, as Brady and the offense inch ever closer to the dominance we all know they're capable of. In fact, if I had to put my money on it, I would say this is the week they officially put the NFL on notice, as well as expose the Broncos' fraudulent defense.

    6. Eagles - Not that it comes as even a mild surprise, but it appears Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook will return, healthy as can be, to the field this Sunday against Tampa. As long as they're at full strength, the Birds will be in the mix at the end of the year. If not, at least we've seen that all hope won't be lost if they have to rely on Kevin Kolb or Shady McCoy to make the offense go. Shit, for the first time in the Andy Reid era, there's gonna be a smidgen of merit, if only a smidgen, when the peanut gallery inevitably calls for Donovan's benching the first time one of his receivers drops a ball on Sunday.

    7. Steelers - See how much better things work out when you stop pretending to be something you're not? Put the ball in Ben's hand at the end of the game, you win. Try to salt the ball away being a power running team you haven't been in years, you not only open the door for the other team's offense, you all but guarantee a winded defense trying to stop them. I can't put too much stock in Rashard Mendenhall's big night, given the Chargers are literally the worst tackling defense I've ever seen, but it didn't hurt him one bit that San Diego was forced to play the pass first. As long as they keep passing to set up the run, as opposed to the other way around, they should be able to produce enough on the ground to make it worthwhile. If they insist on being a run first, run second team, they'll keep playing .500 football, with or without Troy Polamalu. They're just not built to be a smashmouth offensive team right now.

    8. Ravens - That's a little more like the Ravens I expected this year. A defense which still looks like the defense of the past few years, but a little bit slower and a lot less ingenious without Rex Ryan scheming it, and a good, but not great, offense. Did anyone really believe in those 30+ point performances against Kansas City, Cleveland, and San Diego? Amazingly, the answer is a resounding yes.

    9. Jets - Speaking of Sexy Rexy the genius, did anyone else notice how out of sync he managed to keep the Saints' offense last week? If not for Mark Sanchez' worst game thus far this season and a defense which had been on the field all game, the Jets would've kept the Saints' offense out of the end zone for the entire game. When Ryan blitzed, he managed to catch Brees off guard, and when he dropped into a zone, there simply weren't open areas for the Saints' receivers to sit in. But as long as Sanchez is on the learning curve, gang green is going to have to win tight games. If the offense doesn't do a better job of sustaining drives, expect more games where the Jets' defense finally breaks at the end.

    10. Broncos - They're 4-0, so it seemed to me like it would be unfair not to inlude them in the top 10, but this isn't, realistically, one of the best teams in the NFL. There are few guarantees in life, and similarly in football, but one of them is that the Broncos will allow significantly more than 6.5 points per game for the last three quarters of the season. You can take that one to the bank. And as nice as it is that Kyle Orton hasn't turned the ball over yet, he also hasn't seen even a mediocre defense since week 1, when he needed a miracle in the game's final minute to find the end zone against the Bengals. And honestly, I'm not sure that's even better than a mediocre defense. But until they start losing like I think they inevitably will, they get a spot on the list.
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